A presidential campaign marked by upheaval and rancor approached its finale Tuesday as voters weighed a stark choice for the nation’s future in deciding whether to send Republican Donald Trump back to the White House or elevate Vice President Kamala Harris to the Oval Office.

With just hours until polls close, tens of millions of Americans added their ballots to the 84 million cast early as they chose between two candidates with drastically different temperaments and visions for the country. Those casting Election Day ballots mostly encountered a smooth process, with isolated reports of hiccups that regularly happen, including long lines, technical issues and ballot printing errors.

Harris stands to be the first female president if elected and has promised to work across the aisle to tackle economic worries and other issues without radically departing from the course set by President Joe Biden. Trump has vowed to replace thousands of federal workers with loyalists, impose sweeping tariffs on allies and foes alike, and stage the largest deportation operation in U.S. history.

Harris and Trump entered Election Day focused on seven swing states, five of them carried by Trump in 2016 before they flipped to Biden in 2020: the “blue wall” of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin as well as Arizona and Georgia. Nevada and North Carolina, which Democrats and Republicans respectively carried in the last two elections, also were closely contested.

Trump voted in Palm Beach, Florida, near his Mar-a-Lago club, and said afterward that he was feeling “very confident.”

Harris, the Democratic vice president, did phone interviews with radio stations in the battleground states, then visited Democratic National Committee headquarters in Washington carrying a box of Doritos — her go-to snack.

“This truly represents the best of who we are,” Harris told a room of cheering staffers. She was handed a cellphone by supporters doing phone banking, and when asked by reporters how she was feeling, the vice president held up a phone and responded, “Gotta talk to voters.”

The closeness of the race and the number of states in play raised the likelihood that, once again, a victor might not be known on election night.

Trump said Tuesday that he had no plans to tell his supporters not to refrain from violence if Harris wins, because they “are not violent people.” Asked about accepting the race’s results, he said, “If it’s a fair election, I’d be the first one to acknowledge it.” He visited a nearby campaign office to thank staffers before a party at a nearby convention center.

After her DNC stop, Harris planned to attend a party at her alma mater, Howard University in Washington.

Federal, state and local officials have expressed confidence in the integrity of the nation’s election systems. They nonetheless were braced to contend with what they say is an unprecedented level of foreign disinformation — particularly from Russia and Iran — as well as the possibility of physical violence or cyberattacks.

Both sides have armies of lawyers in anticipation of legal challenges on and after Election Day. And law enforcement agencies nationwide are on high alert for potential violence.

Harris, 60, would be the first woman, Black woman and person of South Asian descent to serve as president. She also would be the first sitting vice president to win the White House in 36 years.

A victory would cap a whirlwind campaign unlike any other in American history. Harris ascended to the top of the Democratic ticket less than four months ago after Biden, facing massive pressure from his party after a disastrous debate performance, ended his reelection bid.

In Scranton, Pennsylvania, Liza Fortt arrived at her polling location in a wheelchair and not feeling well. But she said she ventured out anyway to vote for Harris.

“It means a lot to me and my grandkids, my granddaughters, my nieces. … I was just waiting for this day to come,” said Fortt, who is 74 and Black. She said she never thought she’d have such an opportunity, to cast a ballot for a Black woman in a presidential race.

“I’m proud, to see a woman, not only a woman, but a Black woman,” Fortt said.

Trump, 78, would be the oldest president ever elected. He would also be the first defeated president in 132 years to win another term in the White House, and the first person convicted of a felony to take over the Oval Office.

He survived one assassination attempt by millimeters at a July rally. Secret Service agents foiled a second attempt in September.

A Trump victory would affirm that enough voters put aside warnings from many of Trump’s former aides or instead prioritized concerns about Biden and Harris’ stewardship of the economy or the U.S.-Mexico border.

It would all but ensure he avoids going to prison after being found guilty of his role in hiding hush-money payments to an adult film actress during his first run for president in 2016. His sentencing in that case could occur later this month. And upon taking office, Trump could end the federal investigation into his effort to overturn the 2020 election results.

First-time voter Jasmine Perez, 26, cast her ballot at the Las Vegas Raiders’ stadium in Nevada for Trump, citing his spiritual values.

“What really attracted me to Donald Trump is I’m a Christian,” Perez said, noting of the former president, “I like that he openly promotes Christianity in America.”

Harris, pointing to the warnings of Trump’s former aides, has labeled him a “fascist” and blamed Trump for putting women’s lives in danger by nominating three of the justices who overturned Roe v. Wade. In the closing hours of the campaign, she tried to strike a more positive tone and went all of Monday without saying her Republican opponent’s name.

JD Jorgensen, an independent voter in Black Mountain, North Carolina, which was hit hard by Hurricane Helene, said voters should have made up their minds by now.

“I think that the candidates, both being in the public eye as long as they both have been, if you’re on the fence, you hadn’t really been paying attention,” said Jorgensen, 35.

AP

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US Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump wrapped up their presidential election campaigns on Monday in battleground states that are expected to determine who wins the presidency.

Harris spent her final day of campaigning in Pennsylvania, while Trump held events in North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Michigan.

The 60^th US presidential election will be held on Tuesday. In most states, polling stations are expected to open between 7am and 9am local time.

With results expected to be delayed due to the complexities of ballot counting and the growing prevalence of early voting, the outcome remains uncertain.

A victory for Harris will make her the first woman president in US history, and the first Black woman and person of South Asian descent to hold office.

Conversely, Trump will make history as the first president elected despite a felony conviction, stemming from a hush-money case in New York.

Polling suggests a highly competitive race, particularly in seven crucial battleground or swing states that are likely to determine the winner.

Harris recently gained momentum in Iowa, where a poll showed her leading Trump by three points, a notable shift in a state Trump previously dominated in past elections.

With approximately 77 million Americans having already cast early votes, both candidates have made a final push to mobilise their supporters.

Harris has focused her efforts on Pennsylvania, a key swing state with 19 electoral votes, and hosted a star-studded rally featuring Lady Gaga and Oprah Winfrey to energise her support base.

Meanwhile, Trump held multiple rallies across North Carolina and Pennsylvania, attacking Harris’s record and rallying his supporters.

Election Day has evolved into what many now call “Election Week”, with states employing varied rules for ballot counting that can result in delayed results.

As the clock ticks towards the close of polls, the uncertainty surrounding the timing of election results looms large.

Legal challenges could also prolong the announcement of the winner.

Both candidates face their share of controversies, with Trump’s recent remarks during an interview having drawn condemnation, with critics arguing that his incendiary language against political opponents and the media could incite political unrest.

Harris, meanwhile, is aiming to present a message of unity and progress, urging voters to act against divisiveness.

Some have suggested that if Trump secures victory, his previous administration’s focus on US interests could threaten vital trade agreements like the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which significantly benefits South Africa.

In contrast, a Harris presidency is expected to continue the Biden administration’s supportive policies towards Africa, including a commitment to maintaining AGOA and fostering positive relations with South Africa.

Despite the intense domestic political battle characterised by sharp rhetoric, both candidates’ foreign policies may not diverge significantly from established norms.

It has been speculated that whether Trump or Harris takes office, the foundational aspects of US-SA relations, including trade and military cooperation, are likely to remain stable.

As results are anticipated, it is clear that this election encapsulates not just the candidates’ differing policies but also the broader societal tensions that have come to define American politics.

With the world watching, the 2024 presidential election is set to determine not only the next leader of the US, but also the direction of the country for years to come.

INSIDE POLITICS

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A presidential campaign that has careened through a felony trial, an incumbent president being pushed off the ticket and multiple assassination attempts comes down to a final sprint across a handful of states on Election Day eve.

Kamala Harris is spending Monday in Pennsylvania, whose 19 electoral votes offer the largest prize among the states expected to determine the Electoral College outcome. The vice president and Democratic nominee will visit working-class areas, including Allentown, and end with a late-night Philadelphia rally that includes Lady Gaga and Oprah Winfrey.

Donald Trump kicked off four rallies across three states by addressing a roaring crowd in Raleigh, North Carolina, where he declared: “With North Carolina, I’ve always gotten there.”

“It’s ours to lose,” he said.

Trump spoke on his tough immigration policies and ticked through some of his complaints on his Democratic opponents. He also seemed to reference the video that nearly sank his 2016 campaign as he expressed amazement at two giant mechanical arms that caught Elon Musk’s reusable rocket — “like you grab your beautiful baby.”

“See, I’ve gotten much better. Years ago, I would have said something else. But I’ve learned,” Trump said, prompting laughs from the crowd. “I would have been a little bit more risqué.”

The late stages of the 2016 campaign saw the surfacing of the “Access Hollywood” tape, in which Trump bragged about grabbing women by their genitals.

Trump has later events in Reading, Pennsylvania and Pittsburgh — both of which Harris is also visiting. The Republican nominee and former president ends his campaign the way he ended the first two, with a late-night event in Grand Rapids, Michigan.

There were plenty of empty seats at the J.S. Dorton Arena, a 5,000-seat venue with additional seating on the floor in the Raleigh arena where Trump kicked off his campaign day. One attendee, Ebony Coots, said she regretted voting for Democrat Hillary Clinton in 2016 and is now backing Trump — but is nervous about Tuesday’s election.

“You know, actually, I might try to go to another planet,” Coots, a 48-year-old delivery driver, said if Harris were to win.

About 77 million Americans already have voted early. Either result on Election Day will yield a historic outcome.

A Trump victory would make him the first incoming president to have been indicted and convicted of a felony, after his hush-money trial in New York. He will gain the power to end other federal investigations pending against him. Trump would also become only the second president in history to win non-consecutive White House terms, after Grover Cleveland in the late 19th century.

Harris is vying to become the first woman, first Black woman and first person of South Asian descent to reach the Oval Office — four years after she broke the same barriers in national office by becoming President Joe Biden’s second in command.

The vice president ascended to the top of the Democratic ticket after Biden’s disastrous performance in a June debate set into motion his withdrawal from the race — one of a series of convulsions that have hit this year’s campaign.

Trump survived by millimeters a would-be assassin’s bullet at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. His Secret Service detail foiled a second attempt in September, when a gunman had set up a rifle as Trump golfed at one of his courses in Florida.

Harris, 60, has pitched herself as a generational change from 81-year-old Biden and Trump, who is 78. She’s emphasized her support for abortion rights after the 2022 Supreme Court decision that ended the constitutional right to abortion services, and she has regularly noted the former president’s role in the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol.

Assembling a coalition ranging from progressives such as Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York to Republican former Vice President Dick Cheney, Harris has called Trump a threat to democracy and late in the campaign even embraced the critique that Trump is accurately described as a “ fascist.”

Heading into Monday, Harris has mostly stopped mentioning Trump by name, calling him instead “the other guy.” She is promising to solve problems and seek consensus.

Harris campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillion said on a call with reporters that not saying Trump’s name was deliberate because voters “want to see in their leader an optimistic, hopeful, patriotic vision for the future.”

At her first stop in Scranton, Pennsylvania, Harris talked about once being a longshot while running for San Francisco district attorney in 2002 and how she “used to campaign with my ironing board.”

“I’d walk to the front of the grocery store, outside, and I would stand up my ironing board because, you see, an ironing board makes a really great standing desk,” Harris said, recalling how she would tape her posters to the outside of the board, fill the top with flyers and “require people to talk to me as they walked in and out.”

In Allentown, home to tens of thousands of Puerto Ricans, the vice president will hold a rally with rapper Fat Joe. Later, she’s visiting a Puerto Rican restaurant in Reading with Ocasio-Cortez. Both Fat Joe, whose real name is Joseph Cartagena, and Ocasio-Cortez, are of Puerto Rican heritage.

The stops come after a comic at a recent Donald Trump rally suggested that Puerto Rico was a “floating island of garbage.”

Standing in line for Harris’ Allentown rally, 54-year-old Ron Kessler, an Air Force veteran and Republican-turned-Democrat, said he plans to vote for just the second time in his life. Kessler said that, for a long time, he didn’t vote, thinking the country “would vote for the correct candidate.”

But “now that I’m older and much more wiser, I believe it’s important, it’s my civic duty. And it’s important that I vote for myself and I vote for the democracy and the country.”

As recently as Sunday, Trump renewed his false claims that U.S. elections are rigged against him, mused about violence against journalists and said he “ shouldn’t have left” the White House in 2021 — dark turns that have overshadowed another anchor of his closing argument: “Kamala broke it. I will fix it.”

The election is likely to be decided across seven states. Trump won Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin in 2016 only to see them flip to Biden in 2020. North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada add the Sun Belt swath of the presidential battleground map.

Harris’ team has projected confidence in recent days, pointing to a large gender gap in early voting data and research showing late-deciding voters have broken her way. They also believe in the strength of their campaign infrastructure. This weekend, the Harris campaign had more than 90,000 volunteers helping turn out voters — and knocked on more than 3 million doors across the battleground states. Still, Harris aides have insisted she remains the underdog.

Trump’s campaign says it’s feeling confident as well, arguing that the former president’s populist appeal will attract younger and working-class voters across racial and ethnic lines. The idea is that Trump can amass an atypical Republican coalition, even as other traditional GOP blocks — notably college-educated voters — become more Democratic.

AP

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Republican Donald Trump made a last pitch for support in Pennsylvania, the largest of the seven states expected to decide this week’s U.S. presidential election, while Democratic rival Kamala Harris focused her energy on Michigan on Sunday.

Opinion polls show the pair locked in a tight race, with Vice President Harris, 60, bolstered by strong support among women voters while former President Trump, 78, gains ground with Hispanic voters, particularly men.

Voters overall view both candidates unfavorably, according to Reuters/Ipsos polling, but that so far has not dissuaded them from casting ballots. More than 76 million Americans have already done so ahead of Tuesday’s Election Day, according to the University of Florida’s Election Lab, approaching half the total 160 million votes cast in 2020, which saw the highest U.S. voter turnout in more than a century.

North Carolina, another swing state, reported setting a record when its early-vote period ended on Saturday.

Control of the U.S. Congress is also up for grabs on Tuesday, with Republicans favored to capture a majority in the Senate while Democrats are seen as having an even chance of flipping Republicans’ narrow majority in the House of Representatives. Presidents whose parties have not controlled both chambers have struggled to pass major new legislation over the past decade.

“Here’s all you need to know: Kamala broke it and we’re going to fix it,” said Trump, beginning his rally in Lititz, in central Pennsylvania, an hour late and his voice raspy. In a speech where he repeatedly criticized the U.S. election process, he added, “It’s a damn shame and I’m the only one who talks about it because everyone is damn afraid to talk about it.”

Trump is later due to speak in Kinston, North Carolina, before ending his day with an evening rally in Macon, Georgia. Those two states are the second-biggest prizes up for grabs on Tuesday, with each holding 16 of the 270 votes a candidate needs to win in the state-by-state Electoral College to secure the presidency. Pennsylvania offers 19 electors.

Nonpartisan U.S. election analysts reckon Harris would need to win about 45 electoral votes in the seven swing states to win the White House, while Trump would need about 51, when accounting for the states they are forecast to win easily.

Harris is due to speak at a church in Detroit, the largest majority-Black U.S. city, at around noon ET (1700 GMT) on Sunday before heading to East Lansing, a college town in an industrial state that is viewed as a must-win for the Democrat.

She faces skepticism from some of the state’s 200,000 Arab Americans who are frustrated Harris has not done more to help end the war in Gaza and scale back aid to Israel. Trump visited Dearborn, the heart of the Arab American community, on Friday and vowed to end the wars in the Middle East.

Harris, who has met behind closed doors with selected Arab American and Muslim leaders, will focus her energy on Black neighborhoods on Sunday.

Samah Noureddine, 44, a Lebanese American from Grosse Ile, a town near Detroit, said she voted for Biden in 2020 but was casting a ballot for Jill Stein of the Green Party this year.

“I’m upset because Harris is funding the genocide and if we get Trump we’re going to suffer too,” she said. “I’m sick of both of them.”

In the campaign’s final days, Harris has sought to convince voters that she will bring down the cost of living, a top concern after several years of high inflation. She has also portrayed Trump as dangerous and erratic and urged Americans to move on from his divisive approach to politics.

“We have an opportunity in this election to turn the page on a decade of Donald Trump trying to keep us divided and afraid of each other. We’re done with that,” she said in Charlotte on Saturday.

Trump has argued that Harris, as the sitting vice president, should be held responsible for rising prices and the high levels of immigration of the past several years, which he has portrayed as an existential threat to the country.

The stakes are high, with Harris and Trump having starkly different views of the economy, the role of government in American life and the role of the U.S. in the world.

One illustration of that came from Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, a Trump supporter and opponent of military aid to Ukraine as it fights off a Russian invasion. Orban said Europe will need to rethink its support of Ukraine if Trump wins.

Trump’s public comments have suggested he could seek to wind down U.S. aid for Ukraine if he wins on Tuesday.

Reuters

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Kamala Harris made a surprise appearance on “Saturday Night Live” in the final days before the presidential election, playing herself as the mirror-image double of Maya Rudolph’s version of her in the show’s cold open.

The first lines the candidate spoke as she sat across from Rudolph, their outfits identical, were drowned out by cheers from the audience.

“It is nice to see you Kamala,” Harris told Rudolph with a broad grin she kept throughout the sketch. “And I’m just here to remind you, you got this.”

In sync, the two said supporters need to “Keep Kamala and carry-on-ala,” declared that they share each other’s “belief in the promise of America” and delivered the signature “Live from New York it’s Saturday night!”

Harris made the surprise trip to New York before Tuesday’s election, taking a brief break from the battleground states where she has been campaigning. With the appearance on NBC’s sketch comedy show, the Democratic nominee was hoping to generate buzz and appeal to a nationwide audience.

Harris had left Charlotte, North Carolina and was scheduled to head to Detroit, but once in the air, aides said she would be landing elsewhere. The appearance was only confirmed by Harris’ team moments before the live airing began.

The vice president arrived at 30 Rockefeller Plaza in Manhattan, where “SNL” tapes, shortly after 8 p.m., enough time for a quick rehearsal before the show aired live at 11:30 p.m. It was the final “SNL” episode before Election Day.

She left immediately after the opening segment and told reporters, “It was fun!” as she boarded her plane for Michigan.

Host John Mulaney and musical guest Chappell Roan shifted the show away from politics. Neither addressed the election.

Some expected Roan, the 26-year-old singer who has become a major star in recent months, to make a political statement in her first appearance on the show. She has previously been harshly critical of the Democratic Party and declined to endorse Harris in her campaign against Republican Donald Trump, although Roan has said several times she plans to vote for her.

Roan sang her hit “Pink Pony Club,” on an all-pink set bathed in pink light and made no remarks.

Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va., also made a surprise appearance, in a game-show sketch where the gag was that no one remembered him despite his being Hillary Clinton’s running mate in 2016.

“It’s been less than eight years. What’s my name?,” he said, as the contestants stood silent and flummoxed.

Rudolph first played Harris on the show in 2019 and has reprised her role this season, doing a spot-on impression of the vice president, including calling herself “Momala” — a reference to the affectionate nickname that Harris’ stepchildren gave her.

Fellow former cast member Andy Samberg appeared again as Harris’ husband, second gentleman Doug Emhoff. Standup comic Jim Gaffigan played Harris’ running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz. Dana Carvey, best known on the show for playing President George H.W. Bush in the late 1980s, stood in for President Joe Biden.

Rudolph’s performance has won critical and comedic acclaim, including from Harris herself.

“Maya Rudolph — I mean, she’s so good,” Harris said last month on ABC’s “The View.” “She had the whole thing, the suit, the jewelry, everything!”

Jason Miller, a senior adviser to Trump, expressed surprise that Harris would appear on “SNL” given what Miller characterized as her unflattering portrayal on the show. Asked if Trump had been invited to appear, Miller said: “I don’t know. Probably not.”

Politicians nonetheless have a long history on “SNL,” including Trump, who hosted the show in 2015. But appearing so close to Election Day is unusual.

Clinton was running in the 2008 Democratic presidential primary when she appeared next to Amy Poehler, who played her on the show and was known for launching into a trademark, exaggerated cackle. The real Clinton wondered during her appearance, “Do I really laugh like that?”

Harris repeated that line in response to Rudolph’s portrayal of her laugh in Saturday’s episode.

Clinton returned in 2016, when she was running against Trump, who won that election.

The first sitting president to appear on “SNL” was Republican Gerald Ford, who did so less than a year after the show debuted. Ford appeared in April 1976 on an episode hosted by his press secretary, Ron Nessen, and declared, “Live from New York, it’s Saturday Night.”

Then-Illinois Sen. Barack Obama appeared alongside Poehler impersonating Clinton in 2007. Republican Bob Dole was on the show in November 1996 — a mere 11 days after losing that year’s election to Bill Clinton. Dole consoled Norm Macdonald, who played the Kansas senator.

Then there was Tina Fey’s 2008 impression of vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin — and in particular her joke that “I can see Russia from my house.” It was so good that Fey won an Emmy and Palin herself appeared on the show that October, in the weeks before the election.

AP

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As is typical in the U.S. election cycle, U.S. Africa policy does not figure prominently—or at all—in most discussions of the candidates’ foreign policy platforms. That’s a shame, because Africa is changing rapidly, with old relationships and regimes under new stress.   

Metastasizing instability in the Sahel, tension and the threat of state collapse in the Horn, and continued fragility in Central Africa are bringing insecurity to more societies, and opportunity to external actors promising to tamp down threats in exchange for resources and influence. Afropessimism is lazy and reductive, as some changes do bring new opportunities to unleash the continent’s potential, but there is no escaping the reality that the region confronts massive challenges. At the same time, the United States is struggling with an inability to protect its own interests and build lasting partnerships in the midst of so much turmoil at home and abroad.  

Already, the U.S. election cycle is providing fuel for forces wishing to undermine the very idea of democratic governance in Africa, as complaints of rigging and political violence undermine faith in the integrity of the world’s oldest democracy. In a continent that has seen a rash of military takeovers and where polls show popular dismay with how democracy is working, struggles in the United States only exacerbate existing doubts. 

As for the electoral outcome, another Donald Trump administration would presumably operate much like its first iteration, meaning that Africa policy will be largely an afterthought and the climate-related issues so important to the continent will be ignored by the United States. Other major and middle powers, like China, Russia, and the Gulf states that understand the region to be an important part of their broader strategic interests will likely benefit.   

A Kamala Harris administration is less predictable, although it could look a great deal like a continuation of the Joe Biden administration’s approach to the region, which featured some commendable efforts including the Lobito corridor investments. But, too often, the United States in Africa has been inflexible, ponderous, unresponsive, or just plain absent.  

What U.S. foreign policy in Africa needs is not so much a swapping out of personnel as a bigger change in mindset, moving African issues out of the periphery of strategic thinking and waking up to the reality that other major and middle powers have been far more ambitious in their engagements in Africa for years now, sometimes to the detriment of U.S. interests. Critical supply chains and the next-generation international institutions and norms will be determined in large part by African decisions.  

Seriously reckoning with the most urgent interests of Africans and finding common ground with the interests of the United States needs to happen not just among Africa specialists, but anyone serious about U.S. foreign policy. To succeed, any administration will have to drag the foreign policy establishment out of its anachronistic ideas about Africa’s relevance. 

Gavin is the Ralph Bunche Senior Fellow for Africa Policy Studies, Council on Foreign Relations (United States)

This article was originally published in the Council of Councils

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The outcome of the upcoming U.S. presidential election could considerably alter the direction and substance of African capitals’ bilateral relations with Washington.  

The Joe Biden–Kamala Harris administration has made significant efforts to effectively course-correct and reframe U.S.-Africa relations, primarily through its 2022 Strategy toward sub-Saharan Africa. The objectives include fostering open societies, delivering democratic and security dividends, advancing economic opportunity, and supporting climate adaptation.  

This strategy has been bolstered by numerous high-level working visits to the continent, the mobilisation and facilitation of new investment and trade agreements, and renewed commitments toward supporting democratic transitions and processes. Those efforts were solidified at the December 2022 U.S.-Africa Leader’s Summit, in which delegations from forty-nine African countries converged in Washington to discuss and explore strengthened bilateral relations based on shared interests and values.  

More recently, the United States’ calls for UN Security Council reform, which now include its official support for two permanent seats for African countries, have further underscored the current administration’s recognition and desire for deeper bilateral relations with African states.  

Despite those efforts, relations with certain African states have been strained by broader geopolitical developments, such as the ongoing conflicts between Israel and Palestine, Russia and Ukraine, and the ongoing conflict across the Sahel. Additionally, these relationships have been stressed by the concomitant efforts of the United States (and other major global powers) to curry favour among states in the Global South over their particular worldviews concerning the future of international order. 

Should Kamala Harris emerge victorious in November, it is likely that the substance and direction of U.S. policy and strategy toward the continent will continue as it has under the Biden administration.  

In fact, this overarching strategy could be pursued with even greater investment and vigour by Washington to secure key allies, ward off the influence of China and Russia, and ensure broad continental support for its core foreign policy and security objectives over the coming decades―as enshrined within its 2022 National Security Strategy.  

In this scenario, key U.S. initiatives such as the African Growth and Opportunity Act, the Just Transition Partnerships, and more recently launched efforts like the African Democratic and Political Transitions initiative and the 21st Century Partnership for African Security, will likely spur more substantive bilateral engagements between Washington and African capitals. 

A second Donald Trump administration, on the other hand, would likely introduce a much greater degree of policy uncertainty.  

The first Trump administration’s foreign policy, characterised by America First nationalism, unilateralism, myopia, and explicit derision directed at certain African states and their people, significantly soured bilateral ties between many African capitals and Washington.  

During this period, Africa, and especially sub-Saharan Africa, appeared to be under-prioritised by the U.S. foreign policy establishment, with a notable lack of high-level exchanges. The Trump administration had unclear foreign policy priorities and objectives for the region and a lack of meaningful new initiatives. There were also considerable delays in appointments to key U.S. diplomatic posts across the continent.  

Accordingly, African leaders view the prospect of a second Trump administration as signifying yet another reversal in U.S. foreign policy toward the region. This result would call into question the various initiatives, commitments, and priorities established for the continent under Biden, and would likely result in a net setback in meaningful international cooperation moving forward. 

Singh is the Senior Researcher: Africa in the World, Institute for Security Studies (South Africa)

This article was originally published in the Council of Councils.

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