President Donald Trump told Gulf leaders on Wednesday he urgently wants “to make a deal” with Iran to wind down its nuclear program but Tehran must end its support of proxy groups throughout the region as part of any potential agreement.

Iran “must stop sponsoring terror, halt its bloody proxy wars and permanently and verifiably cease pursuit of nuclear weapons,” Trump said in remarks at a meeting of leaders from the Gulf Cooperation Council hosted by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in the Saudi capital. “They cannot have a nuclear weapon.”

The U.S. and Iran have engaged in four rounds of talks since early last month focused on Iran’s nuclear program. Trump has repeatedly said that he believes brokering a deal is possible but that the window is closing.

The Republican president’s strongly worded push on Iran to cease support of Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen come as its proxy network has faced significant setbacks in the 19 months since Hamas launched its Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel.

In Iran, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi called Trump’s remarks “deceitful” but did not directly address the U.S. leader’s call on Iran to cease support of proxy groups.

Later, Trump, in an exchange with reporters aboard Air Force One, urged Iran “to make the right decision” about its nuclear program “because something’s going to happen one way or the other.”

“So we’ll either do it friendly or we’ll do it very unfriendly,” Trump warned. “And that won’t be pleasant.”

Trump said that he believed the moment was ripe “for a future free from the grip of Hezbollah terrorists.” Hezbollah is severely weakened after its war last year with Israel in which much of its top leadership was killed, and after losing a key ally with the fall of former Syrian President Bashar Assad, a conduit for Iran to send arms.

Lifting sanctions on Syria

Trump’s comments on Iran came after he met Wednesday with Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa, a face-to-face engagement with the onetime insurgent leader who spent years imprisoned by U.S. forces after being captured in Iraq.

Trump agreed to meet al-Sharaa at the end of his stay in Saudi Arabia. He then headed to Qatar, where he is being honored with a state visit. His Mideast tour also will take him to the United Arab Emirates later this week.

Al-Sharaa was named president of Syria in January, a month after a stunning offensive by insurgent groups led by al-Sharaa’s Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, stormed Damascus and ended the 54-year rule of the Assad family.

Trump said he decided to meet with al-Sharaa after being encouraged to do so by Prince Mohammed and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. He also pledged to lift yearslong sanctions on Syria.

Trump told reporters that the meeting with al-Sharaa went “great” and described him as a “young, attractive guy” with a “very strong past.”

“He’s got a real shot at holding it together,” Trump said.

Prince Mohammed joined Trump and al-Sharaa for the meeting, which lasted 33 minutes. Erdogan also took part in the talks via video conference.

The prince said Trump’s decision to engage with al-Sharaa and lift the sanctions will “alleviate the suffering of the Syrian people” and spur a “new chapter” for the nation.

Formerly known by the nom de guerre Abu Mohammed al-Golani, al-Sharaa joined the ranks of al-Qaida insurgents battling U.S. forces in Iraq after the U.S.-led invasion. He still faces a warrant for his arrest on terrorism charges in Iraq. The U.S. once offered $10 million for information about his whereabouts because of his links to al-Qaida.

Al-Sharaa returned to his home country of Syria after the conflict began in 2011 and led al-Qaida’s branch called the Nusra Front. He changed the name of his group to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and cut links with al-Qaida.

The sanctions go back to the rule of Assad, who was ousted in December, and were intended to inflict major pain on his economy.

Both the Biden and Trump administrations left the sanctions in place after Assad’s fall as they sought to take the measure of al-Sharaa.

State visit to Qatar

After meeting with members of the GCC — which includes Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates — Trump flew to Qatar, the second stop in his Mideast tour.

Like the Saudis did a day earlier, Qatar rolled out the red carpet for Trump. Trump was greeted at the airport by Qatar’s emir Sheikh Tamim Al Thani, and Air Force One was escorted by Qatari F-15 jets as it neared the capital city of Doha.

Trump as he sat down for talks with the emir at the Royal Court told the Qatari leader he was impressed with the “perfecto” marble as well as the camels that took part in his grand arrival ceremony.

Al Thani, for his part, said he had high hopes for Trump’s efforts at ending the grinding war in Gaza.

“I know that you are a man of peace,” he said. “I know that you want to bring peace to this region.”

Qatar, like the other Gulf Arab states, is an autocratic nation where political parties are banned and speech is tightly controlled. It is overseen by its ruling emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani. Sheikh Tamim took power in June 2013 when his father stepped down.

Qatar has also played a central role in pay-to-play-style scandals around the globe.

In Israel, authorities are investigating allegations that Qatar hired close advisers to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to launch PR campaigns to improve the Gulf nation’s image among Israelis.

Two European Union lawmakers were accused of taking money from Doha in a scandal dubbed “Qatar-gate.” U.S. prosecutors in 2020 accused Qatar of bribing FIFA executive committee members to secure the tournament in the country in 2022.

In 2024, RTX Corp., the defense contractor formerly known as Raytheon, agreed to pay more than $950 million to resolve allegations that it defrauded the U.S. government and paid bribes to secure business with Qatar. Doha always has denied wrongdoing.

Qatar also has served as a key mediator, particularly with the militant group Hamas as the international community pursues a ceasefire for the Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip. Qatar also served as host of the negotiations between the United States and the Taliban that led to America’s 2021 withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Qatar is home to Al-Udeid Air Base, a sprawling facility that hosts the forward headquarters of the U.S. military’s Central Command.

The oil-and-gas rich country is also in the center of a controversy over its offer to provide Trump with the gift of a luxury Boeing 747-8 that the U.S. could use as Air Force One while new versions of the plane are under construction by Boeing.

The Qatari government has said a final decision hasn’t been made. But Trump has defended the idea even as critics argue it would amount to a president accepting an astonishingly valuable gift from a foreign government.

Trump has indicated he would refurbish the aircraft and it would later be donated to his post-White House presidential library. He says he would not use the plane once he leaves office.

AP

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President Donald Trump in a speech in Saudi Arabia urged Iran to take a “new and a better path” as he pushes for a new nuclear deal.

Trump said at the U.S.-Saudi investment conference, during a four-day Middle East trip, that he wants to avoid conflict with Tehran.

“As I have shown repeatedly, I am willing to end past conflicts and forge new partnerships for a better and more stable world, even if our differences may be profound,” Trump said.

The comments came as Trump kick off the Mideast trip on Tuesday with his visit to Saudi capital. The latest entreaty to Tehran comes days after Trump dispatched his special envoy Steve Witkoff to meet with Iranian officials for a fourth round of talks aimed at persuading Iran to abandon its nuclear program.

“As President of the United States, my preference will always be for peace and partnership, whenever those outcomes can be achieved,” Trump said.

He also said he hopes Saudi Arabia will soon join the Abraham Accords and recognize Israel “in your own time.”

Saudi Arabia long has maintained that recognition of Israel is tied to the establishment of a Palestinian state along the lines of Israel’s 1967 borders. Under the Biden administration, there was a push for Saudi Arabia to recognize Israel as part of a major diplomatic deal. However, the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel upended those plans and sent the region into one of the worst period of faces it has faced

In a separate development, the White House announced that Trump will meet Wednesday in Saudi Arabia with Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa, the onetime insurgent who last year led the overthrow of former leader Bashar Assad.

The U.S. has been weighing how to handle al-Sharaa since he took power in December. Gulf leaders, have rallied behind the new government in Damascus and will want Trump to follow, believing it is a bulwark against Iran’s return to influence in Syria, where it had helped prop up Assad’s government during a decade-long civil war.

Trump also signed a host of economic and bilateral cooperation agreements with Saudi Arabia on Tuesday to kicked off a four-day Middle East trip with a focus on dealmaking with a key Mideast ally.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the Saudi de facto ruler, warmly greeted Trump as he stepped off Air Force One at King Khalid International Airport. The two leaders then retreated to a grand hall at the Riyadh airport, where Trump and his aides were served traditional Arabic coffee by waiting attendants wearing ceremonial gun belts.

“I really believe we like each other a lot,” Trump said later during a brief appearance with the crown prince at the start of a bilateral meeting.

They later signed more than a dozen agreements to increase cooperation between their governments’ militaries, justice departments and cultural institutions. Additional economic agreements were expected to be inked later Tuesday at a U.S.-Saudi investment conference convened for the occasion.

Prince Mohammed has already committed to some $600 billion in new Saudi investment in the U.S., but Trump teased $1 trillion would be even better.

Fighter jet escort

The pomp began before Trump even landed. Royal Saudi Air Force F-15s provided an honorary escort for Air Force One as it approached the kingdom’s capital — an exceptionally rare sight.

Trump and Prince Mohammed also took part in a formal greeting and lunch at the Royal Court at Al Yamamah Palace, gathering with guests and aides in an ornate room with blue and gold accents and massive crystal chandeliers.

As he greeted business titans with Trump by his side, Prince Mohammed was animated and smiling.

It was a stark contrast to his awkward fist bump with then-President Joe Biden, who looked to avoid being seen on camera shaking hands with the prince during a 2022 visit to the kingdom.

Biden had decided to pay a visit to Saudi Arabia as he looked to alleviate soaring prices at the pump for motorists at home and around the globe. At the time, Prince Mohammed’s reputation had been badly damaged by a U.S. intelligence determination that found he had ordered the 2018 killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

But that dark moment appeared to be distant memory for the prince as he rubbed elbows with high-profile business executives — including Blackstone Group CEO Stephen Schwarzman, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink and Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk — in front of the cameras and with Trump by his side.

Later, the crown prince will fete Trump with an intimate state dinner at Ad-Diriyah, a UNESCO heritage site that is the birthplace of the first Saudi state and the site of a major development project championed by the crown prince.

Oil production

Saudi Arabia and fellow OPEC+ nations have already helped their cause with Trump early in his second term by stepping up oil production. Trump sees cheap energy as a key component to lowering costs and stemming inflation for Americans. The Republican president has also made the case that lower oil prices will hasten an end to the Russia-Ukraine war.

But Saudi Arabia’s economy remains heavily dependent on oil, and the kingdom needs a fiscal break-even oil price of $96 to $98 a barrel to balance its budget. It’s questionable how long OPEC+, of which Saudi Arabia is the leading member, is willing to keep production elevated. The price of a barrel of Brent crude closed Monday at $64.77.

Qatar and UAE next

Trump picked the kingdom for his first stop, because it has pledged to make big investments in the U.S., but he ended up traveling to Italy last month for Pope Francis’ funeral. Riyadh was the first overseas stop of his first term.

The three countries on Trump’s itinerary — Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates — are places where the Trump Organization, run by Trump’s two oldest sons, is developing major real estate projects. They include a high-rise tower in Jeddah, a luxury hotel in Dubai and a golf course and villa complex in Qatar.

Trump is trying to demonstrate that his transactional strategy for international politics is paying dividends as he faces criticism from Democrats who say his global tariff war and approach to Russia’s war on Ukraine are isolating the U.S. from allies.

He’ll announce deals at all three stops during Mideast swing, initiatives that will touch on artificial intelligence, expanding energy cooperation and perhaps new arms sales to Saudi Arabia. The administration this month announced initial approval to sell $3.5 billion worth of air-to-air missiles for Saudi Arabia’s fighter jets.

But Trump arrived in the Middle East when his top regional allies, Israel and Saudi Arabia, are far from neatly aligned with his approach.

Trump’s decision to skip Israel remarkable, expert says

Before the trip, Trump announced Washington was halting a nearly two-month U.S. airstrike campaign against Yemen’s Houthis, saying the Iran-backed rebels have pledged to stop attacking ships along a vital global trade route.

The administration didn’t notify Israel — which the Houthis continue to target — of the agreement before Trump publicly announced it. It was the latest example of Trump leaving the Israelis in the dark about his administration’s negotiations with common adversaries.

In March, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wasn’t notified by the administration until after talks began with Hamas about the war in Gaza. And Netanyahu found out about the ongoing U.S. nuclear talks with Iran only when Trump announced them during an Oval Office visit by the Israeli leader last month.

“Israel will defend itself by itself,” Netanyahu said last week following Trump’s Houthi truce announcement. “If others join us — our American friends — all the better.”

AP

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The recent U.S. deployment of B-2 bombers, the only planes able to launch the most powerful bunker-busting bombs, to within range of Iran is a potent signal to Tehran of what could happen to its nuclear programme if no deal is reached to rein it in.

But military and nuclear experts say that even with such massive firepower, U.S.-Israeli military action would probably only temporarily set back a programme the West fears is already aimed at producing atom bombs one day, although Iran denies it.

Worse, an attack could prompt Iran to kick out United Nations nuclear inspectors, drive the already partly buried programme fully underground and race towards becoming a nuclear-armed state, both ensuring and hastening that feared outcome.

“Ultimately, short of regime change or occupation, it’s pretty difficult to see how military strikes could destroy Iran’s path to a nuclear weapon,” said Justin Bronk, senior research fellow for airpower and technology at the Royal United Services Institute, a British defence think-tank.

“It would be a case of essentially trying to reimpose a measure of military deterrence, impose cost and push back breakout times back to where we were a few years ago.”

Breakout time refers to how long it would take to produce enough fissile material for a nuclear bomb, currently days or weeks for Iran. Actually making a bomb, should Iran decide to, would take longer.

The landmark 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and major powers placed tough restrictions on Iran’s nuclear activities that increased its breakout time to at least a year. After President Donald Trump pulled the United States out of the deal in 2018 it then unravelled, and Iran pushed far beyond its limits.

Now Trump wants to negotiate new nuclear restrictions in talks that began last weekend. He also said two weeks ago: “If they don’t make a deal, there will be bombing.”

Israel has made similar threats. Its Defence Minister Israel Katz said after taking office in November: “Iran is more exposed than ever to strikes on its nuclear facilities. We have the opportunity to achieve our most important goal – to thwart and eliminate the existential threat to the State of Israel.”

BIG, RISKY

Iran’s nuclear programme is spread over many sites, and an attack would likely have to hit most or all of them. Even the International Atomic Energy Agency, the U.N. nuclear watchdog, does not know where Iran keeps some vital equipment, like parts for centrifuges, the machines that enrich uranium.

Israel could take out most of those sites by itself, military experts say, but it would be a risky operation involving repeated attacks and would have to deal with Russian-supplied anti-aircraft systems – although it managed to do so in far more limited strikes on Iran last year.

Uranium enrichment is at the heart of Iran’s nuclear programme, and its two biggest enrichment sites are the Fuel Enrichment Plant at Natanz, located about three floors underground, apparently to protect it from bombardment, and Fordow, dug far deeper into a mountain.

The United States would be far better equipped to take out those hard targets with its most powerful bunker buster, the 30,000-pound (14,000 kg) Massive Ordnance Penetrator, which only B-2 bombers like those recently moved to Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean can currently fire and which Israel does not have.

“(Israel) don’t have enough 5,000 pounders,” to take out Fordow and Natanz, said retired U.S. Air Force General Charles Wald, who now works for the Jewish Institute for the National Security of America, which promotes close defence ties between the United States and Israel.

He was referring to the biggest bunker-buster in Israel’s arsenal. With the U.S., an attack would be quicker and more likely to succeed, though Wald estimated it would still take days.

THEN WHAT?

“A strike by the United States could probably cause more damage than an Israeli strike, but in either case you’re talking about buying time and there’s a real risk that it drives Iran toward rather than away from a bomb,” said Eric Brewer of the Nuclear Threat Initiative, a former U.S. intelligence analyst.

“A strike can disrupt and delay the program, but it can’t destroy it.”

While sites can be eliminated, Iran’s now advanced knowledge of uranium enrichment cannot. Preventing rebuilding would be a constant, extremely difficult task, analysts and officials said.

“What happens the day after? Iran responds to attacks on its nuclear program by hardening its facilities and expanding its program,” said Kelsey Davenport of the Arms Control Association.

Having already undone additional IAEA oversight introduced by the 2015 deal, many analysts see a risk that, if attacked, Iran would kick out IAEA inspectors acting as the world’s eyes at sites like Natanz and Fordow.

“The continuation of external threats and Iran being in a state of #military_attack may lead to deterrent measures, including #expulsion_of_inspectors from IAEA and cessation of cooperation,” Ali Shamkhani, long Iran’s top security official and now an adviser to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, said on X last week.

The only other country to do that is North Korea, which then tested its first nuclear bomb.

“If you bomb Iran, Iran is going to almost certainly in my judgement chuck out international inspectors, make a dash for the bomb,” said James Acton of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Reuters

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