By Lucas Ledwaba
ANC president Cyril Ramaphosa told supporters attending Siyanqoba rally at the FNB stadium on Saturday the party was aiming to secure 90% of the votes in Limpopo, but electoral trends suggest the party may even find it difficult to stay above the 70% mark in the province, traditionally regarded as its stronghold.
Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) statistics indicate that the ANC support in Limpopo has seen a decline of almost 15% since its historic victory in 2004, when it registered 89,18%.
During the last provincial and national elections in 2019, the party dropped to a 75.49% average from 78.60% in 2014. The 2014 average represented a 6.28% drop from the 84.88% it scored in 2009.
The ANC in Limpopo was at its strongest in the 2004 election achieving a massive 89.18% which had surpassed even the 88.29% it amassed in the 1999 election. During the first democratic elections in 1994 the party, just four years after its unbanning and 30 years of being outlawed, won 38 seats amassing a total of 1,759,597 38 votes.
Despite the declining trend, the party is still assured of retaining its majority in the Limpopo Provincial Legislature because of its affinity with rural-based voters who make up the majority of the province’s electorate.
Although it dropped to 75.49% from 1 096 300 votes translating to 38 seats in the 2019 election, it remains the majority party and looks highly unlikely to be unseated within the foreseeable future.
Political analyst Dr Metji Makgoba, who is based at the University of Limpopo said the developments in the province show that the ANC will maintain its domination, keeping its numbers above 70 percent.
“While the ANC has been declining in Limpopo partly due to the formation and the ultimate growth of the EFF, the opposition has not shown any strong efforts to challenge the ANC’s hegemony in the province,” Makgoba said.
“The ANC has also struggled to deal with corruption and the issue of water shortage, and unemployment and this will directly affect its performance. Some parts of the province have struggled to have access to water in the past few days and may use the election to punish the the party”.
“However, by hosting its final Tshela Thupa in Limpopo, the EFF has registered its seriousness to cement itself as a growing party. This has the potential to consolidate the party’s efforts to recruit people who have fallen out of love with the ANC. But the outcome may still significantly favour the ruling party,” Makgoba said.
The EFF, which initially appeared to be a force that could deplete the ANC’s majority, when it first burst onto the scene in 2012, has struggled to make a dent on the former liberation movement’s majority in two successive elections.
The Red Berets are currently the main opposition party in Limpopo with seven seats earned from 209 488 votes which translated to 14.43% of the provincial vote in 2019.
The DA which received 78 360 votes in the same election earned three seats in the provincial legislature.
During the 2019 election, Limpopo had a voter turnout of just 56.36% from 2 608 460 registered voters.
According to the IEC, there is a total of 2,775,159 people registered to vote in Limpopo in the 2024 general election.
As of February 2022, the province had a population of 6.6 million, with 6.3 million of those being black Africans.
Though it is projected to win, the ANC goes into this election faced with a great possibility of a further slide in its majority. This is due to several factors including mounting service delivery challenges including chronic water shortages in both urban and rural areas.
In the last three years, the national government has sent Minister of Water and Sanitation Senzo Mchunu and his team to the province to calm the tempers of fed-up citizens who have been too thirsty, for too long.
Mchunu made promises to residents of Giyani who are the defacto victims of an R3 billion heist by corrupt officials who were tasked with overseeing the completion of the Giyani Bulk Water supply project. But two years later and Mchunu’s promises have remained unfulfilled – leaving the 350 000 residents of Giyani and surrounds with dry taps.
Residents still have to spend the little money they receive from the state welfare to buy water from private suppliers, while those without the means are forced to endure long waits at communal boreholes that dry up due to high demand or are forced to consume murky water from rivers and streams.
This is sadly not only the problem in Giyani, but the rest of the province and lately, these chronic water challenges have been experienced in the urban centres, including the capital Polokwane.
The ineptitude of local water authorities and government structures to resolve the water issues have angered most communities who perceive the ANC government to be indifferent to their plight.
Water is likely to be the central factor influencing how people in the province vote for several reasons. Firstly, although the water shortage issues are partly a legacy of apartheid’s underdevelopment of rural areas, it is also an issue which the ANC has dragged its feet on, made empty promises and its officials deployed in government been tainted with accusations of corruption related to water projects.
To many the water problems are no longer just a political issue, but personal, because water impacts on every aspect of their lives. It may not necessarily be the water challenges that may influence some to vote differently, but the lax and indifferent attitude with which the ANC has treated this issue through the better part of their 30-year, uninterrupted rule in the province.
Limpopo’s service delivery challenges, including terrible roads, poor school infrastructure which includes the widely publicised issue of pit toilets in rural schools are not necessarily unique to the province. But perhaps what is unique is the VBS scandal of 2018.
The scandal in which investors lost their monies and some their lives when the bank went bust after it was looted is still a source of rage among many, especially in the Vhembe region where the bank was dominant.
The fact that ANC mayors were implicated in the scandal and are yet to be prosecuted for depositing over R1 billion of public funds into the bank against regulations may also influence the voting decisions of some. How many, we may not know.
Between 2019 and 2023 the province reported an increase in employment, creating 182 000 jobs in 2023 alone, making Limpopo the second largest province in job creation.
But with more than 31% of people in the province remaining jobless, unemployment remains staggeringly high.
Despite these challenges, it remains highly unlikely that the ANC would be unseated after this election, but it has also become clear it may never regain the public trust that saw it soar to a two-thirds majority in 2004.
Perhaps, the biggest advantage for the ANC in Limpopo, is that the opposition in the province remains rather impotent and even with newcomers on the scene, not at all convincing.
INSIDE POLITCS
