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Inflation set to peak at 5% in July if Iran peace deal holds

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Thebe Mabanga

South Africa’s inflation rate is expected to peak at about 5% in June before easing in the second half of the year, potentially allowing the South African Reserve Bank to pause its rate-hiking cycle at its July meeting, according to Nedbank.

This is the view of Nedbank in the wake of the release of the latest inflation figures.

Stats SA reported on Wednesday that annual consumer price inflation rose to 4.5% in May, from 4.0% in April, reaching its highest level since July 2024, when inflation was 4.6%.

The increase is due to high fuel prices which have been driven by higher oil prices because of the war between Iran and the United Sates, with Israel no longer directly involved.

Stats SA noted that transport costs surged from 4.9% year on year to 9.4% due to higher fuel prices.

Nedbank noted that over the month, fuel prices increased

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