With almost 40% of votes counted, the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) is predicting the biggest loss of support for the ANC since the dawn of democracy.
In partnership with the SABC, the CSIR has applied its prediction model to the current vote patterns and is expecting the governing party to emerge with a solid majority of 57.4% – though this would represent a 4.8 percentage point decline from the 2014 election.
The model also does not see growth for the DA, which is expected to drop slightly from 22.0% of the vote to 21.6% in 2019 – while the EFF is expect to achieve 9.5%, in line with several other pre-election poll snapshots.
Looking at all the pre-election polls published in 2019 ahead of the vote, the CSIR’s prediction is most in-line with outcomes expected by investors in the Intellidex market poll.
Most polls showed a drop
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