CHARLES MOLELE and PHUTI MOSOMANE
THERE’S growing anxiety in government circles ahead of a major Cabinet shake-up during which President Cyril Ramaphosa is expected to fire some ministers and move others to less “significant” ministries.
Ramaphosa was first expected to announce his Cabinet reshuffle shortly after the ANC’s 55th National Conference, where he was re-elected.
When that did not happen, many thought he would make the announcement after the State of the Nation Address (SONA) and the 2023 Budget Speech.
“We are really panicking. We don’t know what the future holds for us. We don’t know whether we will wake up having our jobs,” said one of the ministerial aides who spoke on condition of anonymity.
Another senior official told Inside Politics that his Department received several calls from concerned staff members who asked about the Cabinet reshuffle.
“Calls are coming in. I can tell you there is great anxiety, especially among those working with affected Ministers or Deputy Ministers. The longer the delay, the more the frustrations,” said the senior official.
Government insiders close to the process told Inside Politics that delays in the announcement of a new Cabinet were caused by a stalemate on the future of Minister of Public Enterprises Pravin Gordhan.
Insiders also revealed Ramaphosa has asked Gordhan to step down in order to avoid the embarrassment of being reshuffled.
There has been mounting pressure from different quarters for Ramaphosa to fire Gordhan due to a series of persistent power cuts that have negatively impacted the economy.
“The fear is that if Ramaphosa removes Pravin Gordhan, he will anger the Minister’s business constituency, which also support the President,” said the source.
Tourism Minister Lindiwe Sisulu, a fierce critic of Ramaphosa, told Inside Politics on Thursday she was not anxious about the upcoming executive changes.
“I have no anxiety whatsoever. Whichever way it goes I will be fine. I feel sorry for the President though. He is being hounded by everyone trying to force him to act but he is not running the country alone. There are alliance partners, there is his party, and many other people he has to consult,” said Sisulu.
Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Gwede Mantashe, who has publicly differed with Ramaphosa on the Just Energy Transition (JET), said: “I am not anxious. Not at all. I am asked when will the electricity minister be appointed, but the President has not effected a Cabinet reshuffle. There is sequencing in government. He has had the State of the Nation Address (SONA), followed by the debate. He then had the Budget, followed by the debate. Now, logically, the Cabinet will be the next issue in line. He must be given space to do his work,” said Mantashe.
Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana, a close ally of Ramaphosa who was sworn in as a Member of Parliament this week, said he was not anxious.
“Why should I be anxious? I am not anxious. It’s not the end of the world [if I don’t make it as a Minister]. There’s life beyond a reshuffle,” said Godongwana.
Cabinet members who are likely to get the chop includes Sisulu, COGTA Minister Dr. Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, Minister of Trade, Industry and Competition Ebrahim Patel, and Minister of Higher Education Dr Blade Nzimande.
Patel has failed to make a meaningful impact when it comes to economic policy in the form of industrial policy action plans (IPAPs). His industrial policy approach was frustrated by advocates of neo-liberal policies within the National Treasury.
Public Enterprises Deputy Minister Phumulo Masualle and International Relations Deputy Minister Candith Mashigo-Dlamini are also said to be on their way out.
Government sources told Inside Politics Ramaphosa is likely to drop Nzimande in favour of the current SA Communist Party (SACP) General Secretary, Solly Mapaila, to get a Cabinet post.
“They [those in favour of Mapaila’s elevation] are also arguing that it has always been the tradition that the Party’s General Secretary often gets a Cabinet post. What made matters worse for Nzimande was that he was not elected ANC National Executive Committee (NEC) member during the ANC’s National Conference in December,” the source said.
While there has been a push for Basic Education Minister Angie Motshekga to be axed due to ill-health, Ramaphosa was unlikely to remove her due to the support he received from Motshekga, who is the former President of the ANC Women’s League.
Ramaphosa is also said to be impressed with her performance as Basic Education Minister after she registered just over 80% matric pass rate during the 2022 exams.
There is also a big push for Ramaphosa to replace Maite Nkoana-Mashabane as Minister in the Presidency for Women, Youth and Persons with Disabilities with ANC’s Second Deputy Secretary-General, Maropene Ramokgopa. However, Ramokgopa is said to be uncomfortable with Nkoana-Mashabane’s removal given the support she got from her over the past few years.
“Maropene Ramokgopa is not in favour of Nkoana-Mashabane’s removal from Cabinet because she revived her political career when she was going through a lot, including her divorce. Nkoana-Mashabane revived her political career, and she took her in and appointed her as an adviser. So, she basically told those who want her out to leave her alone,” another source said.
There are also those in favour of Ramokgopha to be appointed Deputy Minister of International Relations and Cooperation to prepare her to take over from Naledi Pandor after the 2024 General Elections.
Those who are lobbying for her to take over as Minister of Women, Youth and People with Disabilities in the Presidency, argue that she will do well in that portfolio, given her experience as ANC Women’s League’s National Coordinator.
ANC Deputy President, Paul Mashatile, is expected to be appointed as the Deputy President of the country despite speculation that he might be side-lined by Ramaphosa’s supporters.
“Mashatile is a given. No one will do anything about it. This idea that he will stage an internal revolt against Ramaphosa is not possible because the balance of power in both the ANC’s NEC and the National Working Committee (NWC) is in favour of Ramaphosa. He will be isolated if he tries to do that,” said a senior government leader.
Ramaphosa is also expected to bring in young and energetic rising stars into his Cabinet, including former Joburg mayor Parks Tau, Head of infrastructure and investment in the Presidency Seputla Ramokgopa, COGTA Deputy Minister Thembi Nkadimeng and Higher Education Minister Buti Manamela.
Ramokgopa is expected to be appointed as Minister of Electricity. Inside Politics understands that Ramaphosa told his party’s key ally COSATU during his consultative meeting that the Minister of Electricity was not a permanent post.
“The President explained to us that the main reason why he was appointing the Electricity Minister was because load-shedding was impacting negatively on the economy, but he said this is not a permanent position but an interim measure,” said a COSATU leader.
“We told the President that we will support him as long as he is not going to recycle leaders. We want people who will bring energy and deliver services to the poor and the working class.”
Other young leaders expected to be retained in Ramaphosa’s Cabinet include Minister of Human Settlements and Head of ANC’s Economic Transformation Committee, Mmamoloko Kubayi, Justice and Correctional Services Minister Ronald Lamola, Small Business Minister Stella Ndabeni-Abrahams and Communications Minister Khumbudzo Ntshavheni.
“Look, we will support the President, as long as he does not appoint the “Usual Suspects” as Ministers. We appreciate the consultations, but this is a chance to deliver. He must avoid recycling the same people,” said the COSATU leader.
Ramaphosa is expected to announce the Cabinet reshuffle on Sunday.
This story has been updated.
INSIDE POLITICS
