PHUTI MOSOMANE
ESKOM issued a warning about the severe constraints on the electricity system, highlighting a high risk of increased stages of load shedding in winter, the embattled power utility said at the State of the System and Winter Outlook media briefing on Thursday.
According to Eskom, the outlook indicates that due to breakdowns and capacity being unavailable as a result of unplanned maintenance, amounting to 15,000MW, load shedding may predominantly be implemented at Stage 5 during the winter period.
“Should breakdowns reach 16 500MW, loadshedding might be implemented at Stage 6. If unplanned outages averages to 18 000MW, loadshedding might be required every day and might be implemented up to Stage 8,” the power utility said.
While not completely ruling out the possibility of Stage 8 load shedding, Eskom emphasized that reaching Stage 8 would be the absolute worst-case scenario.
The power utility stated that it is making every possible effort to prevent such a situation and is committed to doing whatever it takes to avoid it.
Mpho Makwana, the Chairperson of Eskom’s Board, acknowledged the challenging nature of the upcoming winter months and emphasized the need for a coordinated effort among all stakeholders to address the electricity supply situation.
“We fully comprehend the adverse impact that rotational loadshedding has on South Africa’s already fragile economy and its people. We are doing everything to mitigate the intensity of rotational loadshedding including taking lessons from the rest of the world. We have seen that effective rotational loadshedding during winter months requires a coordinated effort among all stakeholders within a country,” said Makwana.
Makwana expressed the Board’s commitment to supporting Eskom management in their endeavors to enhance the performance and extend the lifespan of the coal-based power stations within the Generation division.
He highlighted the significance of addressing corruption as a core element in cultivating a positive and inspiring work environment at Eskom. The focus on combating corruption is essential for the organization’s overall improvement.
“Corruption undermines value-creation and is an enemy of progress it must be uprooted completely so that it does not hinder our efforts of performance improvement. Working through National Energy Crisis Committee (NECOM) streams we see the fruits of collaboration between our internal forensic department, South African Police Service (SAPS), and the Special Investigating Unit (SIU) in dealing with cases of corruption,” Makwana said.
Interim Group Chief Executive Calib Cassim acknowledged that South Africa faced its most severe load shedding challenges, with the energy availability factor (EAF) dropping to 56% during the previous financial year, falling short of the targeted 60%.
However, Cassim also mentioned that there were some positive developments in the ongoing efforts to address the electricity crisis in the country.
These developments indicate progress in finding solutions to mitigate the challenges faced by the power utility and improve the overall electricity supply situation.
“The establishment of NECOM and the development of South Africa’s Energy Action Plan, overseen by government, are some of the positive developments aimed at addressing the electricity crisis. Furthermore, the determination by the Nersa of a favourable tariff increase as well as the debt relief solution by National Treasury are critical enablers of sustainable electricity supply industry,” said Cassim.
Eskom Generation Group Executive Bheki Nxumalo provided an update on the poor performance of the power generating system, emphasizing that frequent plant breakdowns have resulted in the implementation of varying and higher stages of load shedding.
These shortages are expected to persist throughout the winter months, necessitating the continued implementation of load shedding.
The current situation has been further aggravated by the unavailability of four major units on extended outages.
At Kusile Power Station, Units 1, 2, and 3 are offline due to the failure of the Unit 1 flue gas duct on October 22, 2022. Efforts are underway to bring these units back online starting from November 2023.
Additionally, Unit 1 at Koeberg Power Station is currently undergoing a long-term outage for maintenance, refueling, and steam generator replacement.
It is projected to return to service on September 14, 2023.
The unavailability of these three units at Kusile and one unit at Koeberg has resulted in a loss of 3,080MW of capacity from the grid, which is equivalent to three stages of load shedding.
“We are striving to reduce plant breakdowns to 15 000MW or below for the winter period to keep loadshedding at lower stages. We, however, concede that this will be extremely hard given the unreliability and unpredictability of the power generating fleet and that we are already about 3 000MW worse off this winter compared to the same period last year,” said Nxumalo.
Eskom Group Executive for Transmission, Segomoco Scheppers, addressed concerns about a potential nationwide blackout that has been speculated in various media outlets.
Scheppers reassured the public that Eskom has implemented several control measures, including load shedding, with the aim of safeguarding the power system from a complete collapse.
Scheppers, however, cautioned that if losses of 18,000MW or more occur during the winter period, it could necessitate the implementation of load shedding up to Stage 8.
This highlights the severity of the situation and the potential measures that may need to be taken to manage the electricity supply and demand balance during periods of extreme strain on the system.
“Efforts are underway to return a number of units from outages to mitigate the worst case scenario of 18 000MW or above from materialising. Eskom will also keep planned maintenance at a maximum of 3 000MW during the winter period,” said Scheppers.
Eskom Group Executive for Distribution Monde Bala said the power utility has since asked the regulator NERSA to permit a new load shedding up to Stage 16.
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