By Vuyani Ndaba
The South African Reserve Bank will cut its repo rate next week as slowing inflation continues to make way for a series of cuts through the middle of next year, spurring growth to almost 2%, a Reuters poll suggested.
All but two of 22 economists surveyed in the past week said the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) would cut rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 7.75% at its Nov. 21 meeting. Two expected a 50bps cut.
The repo rate is expected to fall again by 50bps in either one move or cumulatively in January and March, followed by a 25bps cut at the May meeting to reach 7.00%.
“We anticipate a second 25bps cut at the November meeting, supported by the dip in September headline inflation, core inflation remaining slightly below the mid-point of the target range, and continued risks for moderate output growth,” Dennis Shen, a senior director at Scope Ratings, said.
Inflation is expected to average 4.2% next year before quickening to 4.5% in 2026.
The consumer price index is expected to reach a trough this quarter and average 3.6%, 0.9 percentage points below the Reserve Bank’s 3%-6% midpoint comfort level, before quickening back to target later next year.
It was last around this quarter’s level in March 2021.
The rand – the currency of Africa’s most industrialized nation – has faced a difficult time against a resurgent dollar since elections as investors ponder to what extent President-elect Donald Trump is likely deliver tariffs across the world.
Another Reuters poll predicted the euro zone economy will be hit with tariffs from the incoming U.S. Trump administration early next year, all but ensuring a series of interest rate cuts from the European Central Bank, similar to South Africa.
“The strengthening of the dollar and higher U.S. borrowing rates also mean higher inflation, a greater risk of capital outflows and generally less-accommodative financial conditions for developing economies,” Shen said.
Annabel Bishop, chief economist at Investec, wrote that concerns over the degree of tariff protection in the U.S. has worried markets.
Full enactment of the proposals made on Trump’s election campaign would lead to slower global growth and weaker demand for commodities, a material staple for economic growth locally.
Traders in financial markets have piled into bets the U.S. Federal Reserve will go ahead with another reduction in borrowing costs at its Dec. 17-18 meeting, despite the strength of its economy and the prospect of quicker inflation there.
Medians in the survey project 75bps of SARB cuts next year, to 7.00%, but the most bullish economist expects an end-2025 rate of 6.00%.
South Africa’s economy is expected to grow 1.7% and 1.9% in the next two years. Last month the forecasts were 1.7% and 2.0%.
Reuters
