Marcus Moloko
EFF leader Julius Malema has been convicted on firearm-related charges by the East London Magistrates Court — a ruling that could spell serious trouble for the future of the July 28 movement.
The charges stem from a 2018 rally at the Sisa Dukashe Stadium in Mdantsane, Eastern Cape, where Malema discharged an alleged semi-automatic rifle into the air during the party’s anniversary celebrations.
Despite claims by Malema that the weapon was a toy gun loaded with blanks, the East London court ruled otherwise and dismissed his defense as lacking credibility.
Malema’s sentencing is scheduled for January 23, 2026.
A conviction could mean 12 months’ imprisonment without the option of a fine, and disqualify him from serving as a Member of Parliament (MP) for five years after the sentence is completed.
The implications are troubling for the EFF, as Malema is not only its president but also its ideological nucleus, public face, and commander-in-chief.
His absence from the party and parliament could silence its most forceful voice in legislative battles.
The steady departure of high-profile EFF leaders since 2020, accelerating in 2024, further raises questions about internal cohesion and succession planning.
Here is a look at the noteworthy exits that signal fractures within the party.
- 2020 – Andile Mngxitama: Departed the party after sharp criticism of its political direction.
- 2023 – Busisiwe Mkhwebane: The impeached former public protector briefly joined the EFF after her September 2023 removal from office and was sworn in as an MP. She later resigned, writing on X: “Today [Wednesday] I am saying goodbye to you fighters. After consideration and talking to my family, they advised and felt I needed to go away, spend time with them, rest and continue to fight for the vulnerable where possible.”
- 2024 – Mzwanele Manyi: The former spokesperson resigned, a move soon followed by the departure of then-deputy president Floyd Shivambu.
- 2024 – Floyd Shivambu: A co-founder and deputy president, Shivambu resigned to join the MK Party as its secretary-general, before launching his own outfit, the Afrika Mayibuye Movement.
- 2024 – Mbuyiseni Ndlozi: The former national spokesperson exited frontline politics and now hosts Power Talk on radio station Power 98.7.
This wave of departures has not only raised concern but also weakened the party’s intellectual and strategic core, exposing fractures within its internal machinery.
While Malema has dismissed critics’ claims about disunity, the steady exit of senior figures points to an undeniable leadership challenge.
The party stands to decide whether to rally behind Malema or begin grooming a successor.
The absence of a clear second in command makes challenges faced by Malema a challenge for the party holding 39 seats in Parliament.
Should Malema be sentenced to prison and lose his parliamentary seat, the party could face a leadership vacuum.
The EFF has weathered storms before, which range from corruption allegations to parliamentary issues.
Its resilience lies in the party’s ability to frame adversity as political persecution.
Malema has confirmed his intent to appeal the verdict, arguing an imperialist attack.
The EFF stands at clear crossroads. Its ability to emerge stronger under pressure will depend on institutionalising leadership and broadening its ideological appeal.
Trouble is evident, but whether it proves fatal remains to be seen.
Survival will likely hinge on the party’s willingness to shift from defiance toward a more structured, long-term strategy.
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