By Thapelo Molefe
President Cyril Ramaphosa and the ANC are facing a defining moment that could lead to the collapse of the Government of National Unity (GNU).
In the next coming days, the ANC must decide whether to sever ties with the Democratic Alliance (DA) and reconfigure the GNU without its current coalition partners.
This follows a series of meetings with various political parties aimed at reimagining the future of the unity government.
On Sunday, the ANC met with the Freedom Front Plus (FF Plus), following earlier engagements with the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), Pan African Congress (PAC), EFF, ActionSA, and the DA.
The future of both the DA and FF Plus in the coalition now hangs in the balance after the parties publicly opposed the ANC’s proposed budget.
This is as important within the ANC as it is for the general public.
At the heart of the dispute is the inclusion of a 0.5 percentage point VAT increase.
The original February budget, which was later withdrawn, proposed a two-point hike, later revised to one percentage point over two years.
However, Ramaphosa has taken a firm line, stating that the DA had “defined itself outside the GNU” by opposing the budget.
The ANC, on the other hand, argues that the DA cannot simultaneously occupy positions in government while acting as an opposition party – particularly when it comes to critical fiscal policy.
Cabinet ministers, the ANC maintains, cannot be expected to implement a budget they do not support.
In response to the growing tensions, the ANC has initiated talks with other parties in what could lead to a reconfigured GNU.
The ANC and the DA parties have clashed repeatedly – most recently over the budget, as well as key legislative matters such as the BELA Bill, National Health Insurance, and Expropriation legislation.
Speculation is now mounting about whether the DA will remain in the GNU.
Some hardliners within the ANC are openly calling for the DA’s removal from the coalition.
This week, Deputy President Paul Mashatile, a fierce critic of the DA, also announced plans to reconfigure the GNU to include more parties.
His statement followed criticism of the DA for voting against the budget, positioning the party outside the GNU.
He metaphorically compared dealing with the DA to handling a crocodile, emphasizing the need for caution: “When you deal with a crocodile, you must keep your eyes wide open. I’m lying on its back to cross the river.”
However, business leaders warned last week that the collapse of the government would lead to job losses and impact growth.
These leaders include the CEO of Investec, Fani Titi, the CEO of Discovery, Adrian Gore, the CEO of Business Leadership South Africa (BUSA), Busi Mavuso, and Duncan Wanblad, the leader of Anglo American.
“We have a great deal to lose. A collapse of the Government of National Unity could reverse the gains we have achieved,” the leaders said in a letter to Ramaphosa.
“We therefore write to you with a simple plea: Stay the course. Stay in the room. Hold the line. Keep building. Compromise.”
According to critics, the GNU is now at a tipping point, with both the ANC and DA accusing each other of bad faith and political brinkmanship during the 2025 budget negotiations.
The coming days will be crucial in determining whether the current coalition survives or gives way to a new political alignment.
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