AFP
DURBAN – South Africa’s ruling African National Congress (ANC) party
launches its election campaign on Saturday ahead of polls in May that it is
tipped to win despite recently falling support, internal divisions and a
sluggish economy.
The ANC, which has ruled since the end of apartheid 25 years ago, suffered
a sharp decline in popularity under the scandal-ridden presidency of Jacob
Zuma, who was ousted last February after nine years at the helm.
The party of Nelson Mandela suffered a bloody nose in 2016 local elections
when it won a record low of 54% of the vote and lost control of the major
cities of Johannesburg and Pretoria.
But a recent IPSOS survey predicted that the ANC could garner as much as
61% of the vote in May’s national and provincial elections.
The forecast upswing is pinned on the appointment of moderate pro-
business reformer Cyril Ramaphosa as president after ANC lawmakers
forced Zuma to resign as corruption scandals piled up.
“If there was no Ramaphosa, the ANC was not going to win this election,”
Xolani Dube, a political analyst at the Durban-based Xubera think-tank,
told AFP.
“ANC was on the brink of losing these elections and Ramaphosa came as a
saviour.”
Other analysts are more cautious, saying that the ANC could win even
without Ramaphosa, but with a significantly reduced majority.
On Saturday, the party expects 85,000 activists to turn out at a soccer
stadium in Durban for the launch of its election manifesto.
Senior party officials have this week fanned out across the surrounding
Kwa-Zulu Natal province, canvassing for support.
Launching its election manifesto in heavily populated Kwa-Zulu Natal,
Zuma’s home province and former stronghold is a strategic choice, seen as
an attempt to unite the ANC after last year’s power struggle.
‘RESTORE THE MOVEMENT’
Ramaphosa has publicly tried to mend ties, sitting next to Zuma and
praising him at party events this week.
“Ramaphosa needs to deal with the ghost of Jacob Zuma that is roaming
around ANC structures,” Dube said.
Ramaphosa admitted this week that the party had endured “significant
reversals, decline and drift”.
“We find ourselves at another key moment in our history, where we are
called upon to restore the movement,” he said in an address marking 107
years since the party was founded.
In policy terms, the manifesto is set to underline the ANC’s commitment to
land reform to tackle racial inequality — setting the stage for one of the
election’s fiercest battlegrounds.
One of Ramaphosa’s flagship pledges is to change the Constitution to allow
land to be taken from minority white owners without compensation — a
plan aimed at attracting landless black voters that has alarmed many
foreign investors.
The manifesto will also “emphasise unity and organisational renewal
because they know their recent history has not been a good one,” said
University of South Africa professor Somadoda Fikeni.
An electoral win with more than 60% would bolster the ANC’s confidence.
“They could see that as a recovery mode on which they could build. The
biggest psychological threshold is if they fall below 60%, that is what they
will be worried about,” Fikeni said.
The South African economy is forecast to have grown just 0.7% last year,
with unemployment remaining at record highs of over 27%.
The ANC will face the main opposition Democratic Alliance and the radical
leftist Economic Freedom Fighters party in the election, but both parties
have struggled to dent the ruling party since Zuma’s fall.
“In essence… the elections in 2019 will be fought between those who believe
that ANC under Ramaphosa can rid itself of corruption and those who
believe it cannot,” wrote journalist Jan-Jan Joubert, author of Who Will
Rule in 2019?
SOURCE: Story by the AFP
