By Johnathan Paoli
The rapid expansion of Chinese vehicle imports, particularly electric vehicles (EVs), hybrids and low-cost internal combustion engine (ICE) models, is fundamentally reshaping South Africa’s automotive market, intensifying pressure on long-established manufacturers and raising growing concerns about job losses across the sector.
Data from Lightstone Auto shows that the traditional “Big Six” automotive brands: Toyota, Volkswagen, Ford, Nissan, Opel, and Mazda, have collectively fallen below 50% market share for the first time.
This marks a sharp decline from the 60% to 70% dominance they enjoyed in the early 2000s, and from roughly 50% between 2020 and 2023.
While several structural factors are at play, one of the main concerns points to the surge of Chinese imports as the most disruptive force.
Chinese brands such as Chery, Build Your Dream (BYD), GWM (Haval), Omoda and Jetour have expanded at unprecedented speed.
Reports have indicated that newer Chinese entrants grew from just 0.5% of the market in the second quarter of 2022 to around 10% by late 2025.
Chery alone now commands a larger share than Nissan, Mazda and Opel combined, showing how decisively Chinese manufacturers have moved into the mainstream.
Under sustained economic pressure, South African consumers are prioritising affordability, features and warranties over traditional brand loyalty.
Chinese manufacturers have aggressively undercut rivals by offering advanced driver-assistance systems, large infotainment displays and long warranties at prices that often beat stripped-down European and Japanese models.
The result has been an intense feature price war that legacy manufacturers have struggled to match without eroding margins.
Combined Motor Holdings (CMH), one of South Africa’s largest automotive groups, has warned that the “unrestricted proliferation” of Chinese and Indian imports could accelerate job losses unless government support for local production is strengthened.
In its 2025 Integrated Annual Report, CMH CEO Jebb McIntosh said the influx of low-priced imports is placing extreme pressure on domestic manufacturers and the broader automotive value chain.
“At manufacturer level, the unrestricted proliferation of Chinese and Indian vehicle imports has placed extreme pressure on local producers, and many jobs may be lost unless there is more government support,” he said.
CMH’s warning comes against the backdrop of a difficult trading environment at the beginning of the year.
The group reported a 26% decline in headline earnings for the year, following a sharp drop in the first half.
Although revenue increased by 3.2%, operating profit fell more than 18%, largely due to pricing pressure linked to low-cost imports and declining sales volumes of traditionally locally sourced brands.
Affordability remains a structural constraint, with industry data suggesting that only around 10 million of South Africa’s 65 million people can afford a vehicle at all.
In a stagnant market, the arrival of at least a dozen new import brands has intensified competition without expanding overall demand.
Several global brands have restructured local operations, reduced dealer networks or exited certain segments entirely.
CMH cited examples including Nissan discontinuing locally popular pickup models due to affordability constraints, and Volvo dramatically shrinking its dealership footprint as it pivots towards EVs and hybrids, which remain expensive in the absence of subsidies.
Chinese manufacturers, meanwhile, have benefited from global uncertainty around full electrification.
While South Africa remains predominantly an ICE (internal combustion engine) market, Chinese brands have adopted a pragmatic dual strategy: flooding the market with surplus ICE vehicles from China’s domestic overcapacity, while gradually introducing hybrids and EVs positioned as affordable transition technologies.
This flexibility has allowed them to gain volume quickly while legacy manufacturers face higher production costs and slower product cycles.
While some Chinese firms are exploring local assembly under the Automotive Production and Development Programme, these plans remain at an early stage.
Looking ahead, BYD has emerged as the clearest symbol of Chinese ambition in South Africa.
The company plans to expand its dealership network to around 35 outlets by the first quarter of 2026, with a target of 60 to 70 dealerships by the end of that year.
It also intends to roll out up to 300 fast-charging stations nationwide by 2026, reinforcing its commitment to long-term market penetration and signalling that Chinese competition, and its employment implications, is set to intensify rather than fade.
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