By Simon Nare and Johnathan Paoli
The writing is on the wall for the governing ANC party in Gauteng as the nation gears up for the polls, with some surveys confirming the obvious – the once mighty liberation movement is headed for a disastrous performance and could potentially completely lose power.
Despite the feigned confidence of ANC leaders and fighting talk during many of the different election campaigns in the province, behind closed doors some are saying the moment of truth has arrived.
Looking at the numbers, in the previous elections the party of Nelson Mandela and Oliver Tambo just managed to hang on by the skin of their teeth and won a majority by 50.19%.
The die-hards or those who have tasted the gravy train are in denial, but others know that the party just has not done enough to win back the hearts of the masses.
At the party’s Siyanqoba rally at the FNB stadium at Soweto this past weekend held at the FNB Stadium in Soweto the party was embarrassingly snubbed, particularly by its supporters in the province.
Granted the event is a national event and is supposed to pull crowds from all from all over the provinces. This time they didn’t.
The numbers have been decreasing since the 2009 elections while the official opposition in the province the DA has been gaining. The arrival of the EFF has made things worse.
In 2014 the ANC fell from 64.04% to 53.59% while the DA jumped from 21.86 to 30.78. The EFF in its provincial elections scored 10.30%. It got worse in 2019 when the governing party scored 50.19% while the DA went down to 27.45% and the EFF jumped to 14.69%.
The upcoming elections present new fears for the governing party because now there three new notable players who are going to dip into its support base, namely the MK Party led by its former president Jacob Zuma, Patriotic Alliance led by former convict Gayton McKenzie and ActionSA led by businessman Herman Mashaba.
Well, Mashaba’s party will most likely cost the DA votes, but it will also dip into the ANC support base as well.
The MK Party especially is a headache for the ANC because it’s a direct splinter party and the numbers at its recent “people’s mandate” at the Orlando Stadium in Soweto would have had premier Panyaza Lesufi worried about his future in the office.
In fact, one poll predicts that ANC will garner around 46% of support. The only hope for Lesufi to stay in office will be to seal a coalition deal. Corridor talks suggests that MK Party is willing to work with the ANC on condition that it recalls President Cyril Ramaphosa.
If the shambles at the Joburg council is anything to go by, then residents of Gauteng are in for a ride.
The province may be the smallest in size, but it is an economic powerhouse with 16 098 571 inhabitants. Of those, only 6 531 473 have registered to vote in the upcoming elections.
The province has a gross domestic product of R2 197 104 billion and boasts an annual budget of R165.8 billion in the current financial year.
Its economy is bigger than that of KZN and Western Cape combined so this is a big deal for the governing party. Losing this province will greatly affect its national performance.
It recorded its highest growth rate in 2022 when it grew by 2.8% boosted by finance, real estate, business services as well as transport and communication. It is host to the capital city Tshwane even though Johannesburg is where the main financial activities are.
Besides unemployment and crime, the province is facing one of the most ignored subjects in this campaign: the issue of nyaope addiction.
Nyaope abuse is so rife in the province that many are concerned that the country might lose an entire generation.
On each street corner of every township across the province, parents and community leaders have repeatedly been voicing their concerns. In fact, during former president Thabo Mbeki’s campaign in Soweto, a youngster confronted him about it, but he gave him a typical non-committal response.
The province is also facing a huge influx of illegal immigrants and some opposition parties are cashing in on this anti-foreign sentiment which has found resonance with voters.
As with most provinces around the country, service delivery protests about housing, crime, unemployment, and roads have been a regular occurrence.
Come May 29 the people in the province will have their say.
