By Johnathan Paoli
The escalating diplomatic standoff between Pretoria and Washington has thrown the G20 Leaders’ Summit into uncharted territory.
Governance and development specialist Lukhona Mnguni has warned that the United States’ unprecedented absence amounts to a direct challenge to global multilateral norms and could force world leaders to consider appointing a different country as the 2026 G20 chair.
Speaking to Inside Politics, Mnguni was unequivocal about the impossibility of a legitimate handover under current circumstances.
With US President Donald Trump refusing to send any senior official and Washington pushing for only its charge d’affaires to receive the gavel, Mnguni said diplomatic protocol simply did not allow it.
“The South African government has already said the president will not hand over the chair to a charge d’affaires. That’s already dead in the water,” said Mnguni.
“A chargé d’affaires is not an official public representative sent on behalf of that country’s government. And because, from the White House, there has been a clear protest and a restatement that they are not participating, they simply want a symbolic handover. It doesn’t work like that.”
Despite the diplomatic boycott, American companies have maintained a strong presence across G20 engagement tracks.
Mnguni said that US city officials and business representatives attended the Urban20 and Business20 forums, including delegations from New York and Los Angeles, demonstrating that “businesses are investing in their own longevity because long after Trump is gone, they still need to thrive”.
US firms remain deeply engaged in African technology, retail, and manufacturing markets, he said, citing mergers and acquisitions, Starlink’s expansion via Vodacom, and sustained interest in critical minerals such as South Africa’s platinum group metals.
This divergence signals that economic cooperation continues even when political ties freeze, and that multinational firms remain committed to African opportunities irrespective of Trump’s stance.
“There seems to be some level of appreciation from the other bodies that participation in some of these institutions or in some of these engagement groups is crucial, because, these institutions, business, cities, and so on have other areas where they network with various entities in the South African context and in the African context largely,” he said.
With the US refusing to participate in drafting the G20 outcome document, the risk of defaulting to a weakened chair’s Statement looms over the summit.
But Mnguni emphasised that other G20 members had expressed support for a joint declaration, even if somewhat watered down.
South Africa, he said, had worked extensively to build consensus around its core priorities, solidarity, equality, sustainability, and tackling global inequality, while negotiating language disputes with conservative states.
Still, he warned that the US boycott marks the first of its kind and raises questions about whether global powers may wish to send Trump a strong political signal.
Asked about the non-attendance of China, Russia, Mexico, and Argentina’s heads of state, Mnguni cautioned against equating their decisions with Washington’s full boycott.
China had sent its most senior person after President Xi, he said, and continued to demonstrate robust diplomatic engagement, highlighted by its pre-summit pledge to support South Africa’s HIV/AIDS programme.
Russia’s situation, by contrast, may reflect internal political tensions, which Mnguni said could involve a breakdown in the relationship between President Vladimir Putin and his long-time foreign minister Sergei Lavrov.
He did, however, attribute the absence of Mexico and Argentina’s leaders to their political alignment with Trump.
The US refusal to attend, negotiate or participate creates a diplomatic vacuum of global consequence.
Mnguni warned that it cannot be acceptable for an absent leader to receive the G20 presidency at a summit on African soil, where South Africa has invested significantly in symbolism, unity, and Africa’s rising geopolitical influence.
“The G20 leaders may be persuaded to consider a new chair for 2026. It embarrasses South Africa to leave us stranded… the world leaders, if sympathetic, would do well to protect us from embarrassment,” he said.
Mnguni has previously warned that Trump’s isolationist posture represents a systemic threat to global governance.
The US has been a reluctant participant in multilateralism throughout Trump’s term, he said, and it would be an insult to allow the progress made by Global South G20 presidencies, from Indonesia through India, Brazil, and South Africa, to be handed to Trump’s unforgiving guillotine.
Trump’s tariffs, his disdain for global cooperation, and his willingness to withdraw the US delegation altogether amounted to, Mnguni previously said, an attempt to divide and conquer the world and reduce the G20 to a transactional platform concerned only with trade and finance.
Despite the political headwinds, the G20 sherpas announced on Friday morning that they had reached agreement on a Leaders’ Declaration, following five days of intense negotiations.
South Africa had insisted on a declaration rather than a Chair’s Statement, although it remains unclear how much language was softened to reach consensus, especially on gender, sustainable development goals, and renewable energy.
The declaration may yet emerge as a Johannesburg Leaders’ Declaration, excluding the US, but its final form is still under discussion.
Pretoria has formally rejected Washington’s request for its charge d’affaires to receive the handover, with the Presidency confirming that no head of state anywhere in the world would hand the G20 chair to a junior diplomat.
INSIDE POLITICS