Simon Nare
As South Africa heads to the polls on Wednesday there is a niggling question on the minds of the more than 27 million registered voters:
“Who among the leaders of the four top opposition political parties will occupy the Union Buildings when several surveys show no clear winner in this country’s most important elections in 30 years?”
In all probability President Cyril Ramaphosa will retain his position through a coalition agreement if the ANC doesn’t win by an outright majority as required by the constitution.
But even that will depend on who the ruling party is willing to go to bed with among some of the parties positioned on the left or right of the political spectrum to enable it to stay in power and to keep Ramaphosa as President of the Republic.
Speculation is that the ANC would have to choose among the Democratic Alliance (DA) on the right, the youthful and left-leaning Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and new kids on the block, former President Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto Wesizwe party.
Most polls predict the ANC will get between 40 and 43%, the DA will garner 18 and 22% and the EFF 11 and 12% and that the MK party could be another option as it is predicted to poll between 8 and 14% votes.
The ANC for the first time since 1994 is facing the real prospect of not winning these highly-anticipated elections with a clear majority and will be faced with running the country through a coalition that may force the party to give something in order to get something in return.
In terms of policy, the DA and ANC can be likened to oil and water but policies might not be key in marriages of convenience, as the ANC may be placed in a position where it has to fight for its survival.
But some experts predict that this is most unlikely to happen although some leaders from both parties have hinted that this might be a possibility.
For example, the DA, in 2023 got like-minded parties to form what it calls the “Moonshot Pact” to work together to unseat the ANC and to prevent the EFF from getting any meaningful votes in the 29 May elections.
The DA is the only opposition party that has so far garnered double figures at the previous elections and the so called non ANC/EFF opposition parties have also grown in significant numbers.
Of the seven “Moonshot” members only IFP, Freedom Front Plus and ActionsSA have been polled with the IFP predicted to get between 3 and 4% while the other two parties will get votes below 5%.
If it does go with the DA, however, the ANC faces the prospect of giving up some crucial portfolios notably the Treasury, public enterprises, maybe justice and state security which is said to be what the Blue Brigade would demand in addition to the Deputy President position.
An ambitious Steenhuisen has tried but can only dream of leading the country because it will take more than a miracle for the Blue Brigade even with the “Moonshot Pact” to topple the oldest liberation movement and replace its leader with the first white president since the fall of apartheid.
At best Steenhuisen can become deputy president if the ANC decides to form a coalition with the DA. That of course will also depend on how the DA performs at the polls because the party is also facing a tough competition particularly from the Patriotic Alliance which is making huge inroads and taking the coloured votes from the DA and the ANC in the Western Cape particularly.
However, several surveys still place the DA firmly on the second best despite a gallant challenge by the radical EFF which has found a willing constituency among the black and marginalised youth.
Since bursting into the political scene in 2013, the EFF has pitted itself as the government-in-waiting with an apparent appeal to the youth.
But, the EFF has managed to replace the DA as opposition only in Limpopo, Mpumalanga and North West while the DA is in opposition in Eastern Cape, Gauteng and Northern Cape.
Despite filling up stadiums and drawing thousands of its supporters to rallies, the EFF is still trailing behind with 9.71% to DA’s 25.51%.
So, Malema’s hopes of being president is like a pie in the sky no matter how much he is relishing to run the country after he vowed that one day he will be the President of South Africa.
If the ANC were to choose to go into coalition with the EFF – the party’s head honcho Julius Malema would likely demand what has been a thorn on the ANC’s side – the implementation of the expropriation of land without compensation policy that the governing party has been pussy-footing around although this has been adopted at several policy conferences.
The one party the Red Berets have publicly expressed a willingness to work with is MK because they share more or less the same policies of Radical Economic Transformation that were adopted by the ANC at the 2017 Nasrec conference but were never implemented.
But both the EFF and MK will likely come short in terms of numbers if they form a coalition and it’s highly unlikely Malema will go begging to the DA leader John Steenhuisen.
If Zuma’s party gets the 14% at the polls and decides to make moves towards the ANC and gives them the numbers, it could spell trouble for Luthuli House as Zuma might demand the removal of Ramaphosa as President.
And with that the ANC will be forced to look elsewhere for support. Zuma on the other hand can forget about having a second bite at the Presidency even if he wanted to because of the latest Constitutional Court ruling, which effectively bars him from being a Member of Parliament.
So, when the voters put their crosses on the ballot on 29 May 2024, to elect their leaders of their choice, political party leaders will be squirming at the Results Operating Center in Midrand outside Johannesburg and South Africa will hold its collective breath in anticipation of who will lead the “Rainbow Nation” into the future.
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