Simon Nare
THE surprising emergence and rise of former President Jacob Zuma’s Umkhonto WeSizwe party can best be described as the black swan of the highly contested 29 May 2024 National General Elections in South Africa.
As many of the more than 50 new parties formed to challenge one of the highly anticipated elections we have seen since 1994, are starting to disappear, the MK party continues to show gains and strengths not only in KwaZulu-Natal but also in Mpumalanga and in Gauteng.
Last night at the IEC’s Results Operation Centre in Midrand, where the partial election results were announced, the MK party was in the clear lead ahead of the ANC and the IFP in Zuma’s stronghold of KwaZulu Natal and was jostling for the third place with Julius Malema’s Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) nationally.
When we went to bed on Thursday evening, the ANC had more than 3 million votes, the DA more than 1,5 million and the MK was right behind with more than 700 000 votes, but ahead of the EFF at more than 600 000 votes.
In KwaZulu Natal, MK was in the lead with more than 400 000 and the ANC trailing by about half the numbers at 188 000, followed by the IFP with 170 000 votes, and the DA and the EFF with 22 000 votes.
In Mpumalanga where 56.6% of the ballots have been counted so far, MK is trailing the ANC coming in at 17.57% to the ruling party’s 48.79%. Even here the DA has the third place at 14.02% and the EFF occupying the fourth spot at 13.18%.
Based on these major strides and inroads the three-month old party has made, the MK party has earned the title of being called the Black Swan of the 2024 national general elections.
To his friends and foes, Zuma had been dead and buried when the Constitutional Court had ruled that he is not fit to be an MP because of his 15-month sentence for contempt of court just a few weeks before the elections.
Also, the party was marred by a lot of infighting in the beginning over who is really in charge, with MK co-found Jabulani Khumalo writing to the IEC to remove Zuma as the face of the party alleging that he forged a signature.
But the IEC ruled that in spite of the allegations and the Constitutional Court ruling that Zuma cannot run as an MP, Zuma’s face will remain on the ballot.
The rest is history as more than 26 million South Africans registered to vote and many have put their cross next to Zuma’s face in the ballot and set the cat among the pigeons as a legion of his followers in KZN, extending to Gauteng and Mpumalanga are set to upset the status quo.
The rise of the MK party has upset his former party the ANC and its majority governance in the provinces where MK is getting stronger. MK seems to have also taken some of the EFF supporters in KZN, Gauteng and Mpumalanga.
The projections are that when the final results are confirmed at the weekend, MK would be the majority winner in KZN and will be a serious contender in Gauteng and Mpumalanga.
It would seem, the MK’s impact is going to be felt all the way to the National Assembly because a significant loss for the ANC in KZN and in Gauteng, would impact the support of the governing party at national level.
With its projected firm hold in KZN and decisive numbers in Gauteng, MK is now holding some sway in influential provinces which could open interesting chapters for the ANC when it would have to negotiate coalition partners.
ANC’s potential loss in KZN and in Gauteng could also lead to the party needing a partner to govern at national level as there too it would require numbers because according to projections, it would drop to less than 50%.
There too it would be left with few options and would ultimately have to either turn to Zuma or sit in the back benches of the provincial legislature.
As one political commentator proffered, Zuma’s MK party has managed to gnaw at each and every party’s constituencies and is indeed the black swan of South Africa’s most highly contested elections since 1994.
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