SA’s coalition government is crumbling: why collapse would carry a heavy cost

By Vinothan Naidoo and Brian Levy

South Africa’s multi-party government of national unity (GNU), which emerged in the wake of the May 2024 elections, marked a turning point in the country’s political history. It took South Africans back to the 1990s, when the country showed that political opponents could find common cause.

The formation of the government of national unity expressed the hope that the country could do it again.

But just nine months into its term, the good will and pragmatism which marked its formation have worn thin.

A major budget impasse between the two major actors, the African National Congress (ANC) and the Democratic Alliance (DA), threatens the coalition.

South Africans have long been accustomed to viewing the world of politics, governance and bureaucracy through the lens of a top-down “strong” state – a vicious apartheid state, an East Asia style developmental state, or a collusive “predatory state”.

But as recent analyses we