By Thebe Mabanga
Five years after the Covid-19 pandemic disrupted South Africa’s labour market, new data from Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) shows that qualifications, work experience, location, age, gender and skills profile remain key determinants of whether someone finds a job or stays employed.
The data reveals that between the third and fourth quarters of 2024, only 9.8% of unemployed people managed to secure work.
By contrast, almost twice as many—17.4%—exited the labour market altogether, becoming economically inactive either after reaching retirement age or as discouraged work-seekers.
“In 2019, almost everyone who was employed in the third quarter—94.0% to be exact—was still employed in the fourth quarter,” Stats SA notes.
“Fast forward to 2024, and that figure has dipped slightly to 91.8%. While the decline is modest, it signals a shift in employment stability.”
In 2019, 74% of unemployed people remained without work across the final two quarters of the year. In 2024, this figure declined marginally to 72.8%.
Among those classified as economically inactive, 90.7% remained so in 2019, compared with 89% in 2024—still a persistently high level.
Stats SA says the value of this data lies in tracking individuals over time, allowing policymakers to understand movements between employment, unemployment and economic inactivity. The insights are particularly important for shaping interventions aimed at young people.
“One clear opportunity is education,” Stats SA says. “Investing in higher education for those who struggle to access it could make a real difference in helping them transition into employment.”
Work experience remains a decisive factor. In 2024, people with prior work experience had a 9.8% chance of finding employment, compared with just 2.6% for those without experience.
Education levels also mattered. Those with tertiary qualifications recorded a 7.5% transition rate into employment, while people without matric achieved only 4.8%.
Age and gender continued to influence outcomes.
Youth had a transition rate of 4.3%, compared with 7.3% for adults.
Women recorded a 4.6% transition rate, while men fared better at 6.5%.
Geography also played a role.
The Western Cape retained 93.9% of its workforce in employment, the highest rate nationally, while the Free State recorded the lowest retention rate at 87.8%.
When it came to moving from unemployment into work, North West—host of ANC anniversary celebrations over the weekend—posted the lowest transition rate at 4.4%.
Skills levels strongly affected job security.
Low-skilled workers faced the highest risk of exiting employment in 2024, at 12.3%, followed by semi-skilled workers at 8.2%.
Skilled workers were the most secure, with just 2.8% leaving employment.
Finally, the data confirms a long-standing trend: the longer someone remains unemployed, the harder it becomes to find work.
People experiencing short-term unemployment had a 17.5% chance of finding employment in 2024, compared with only 7.4% among those who had been unemployed for extended periods—up to ten years.
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