By Marcus Moloko
As the ANC’s succession undercurrent grows louder, a question doing the rounds is this: did Julius Malema know something specific — not just that Fikile Mbalula’s star was rising, but that key blocs inside the ANC were already shifting, deals were being cut, and a pathway was opening that could carry the secretary-general all the way to the ANC presidency?
What is clear and verifiable, is that the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) leader publicly stated that Mbalula would end up as the ANC’s next president — and he did so with certainty.
The EFF leaders has long been acknowledged for his sharp political instincts and unfiltered commentary.
Speaking to reporters in Johannesburg in December, Malema said: “Fikile Mbalula is going to be President of the ANC if there is no serious intervention made to stop him. I warned you about this… if they allow him to do what he’s doing, he’s going to lead them.”
He then reached for a marathon analogy to frame the contest, casting Mbalula as the runner out in front and Deputy President Paul Mashatile as the one trying to close the gap.
“If it was a marathon, Mbalula is ahead. Paul is trying to catch up… I don’t know how he will get there,” Malema said.
The comments followed Mbalula’s high-profile performance at the ANC’s December National General Council (NGC) in Gauteng. The event, by its nature, amplifies internal standing and provides a stage for would-be leadership blocs to test the room.
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Malema claimed that Mbalula delivered a “two-and-a-half-hour” report at the NGC and presented it as a show of organisational control and momentum.
He also alleged that President Cyril Ramaphosa responded in a way that signalled approval. Those are Malema’s assertions and political reading of events, rather than independently verified quotes from Ramaphosa.
Similarly, Malema said attempts by ANC national chairperson Gwede Mantashe to temper the atmosphere only intensified the support, describing delegates moving closer to the stage in backing Mbalula. But that account is best treated as Malema’s depiction of the mood in the hall, not a confirmed blow-by-blow record.
Still, Malema’s prediction has landed in a political environment where other signals — subtle and not-so-subtle — are being watched for alignment.
There have been reports that the ANC Youth League, under president Collen Malatji, has shown visible proximity to Mbalula’s programmes and schedule, which some have read as an early indicator of where the “Young Lions” may lean if and when succession campaigning becomes formal.
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Malatji has also been quoted pushing back on any narrative that this amounts to premature campaigning, saying that the ANC had not yet opened a leadership contest and that the focus should remain on elections and organisational work.
At the same time, separate reporting has suggested that Patrice Motsepe has been discussed in some circles as a potential ANC presidency contender.
This development, if it materialises, would change the shape of any future contest. As with much succession talk inside the ANC, it remains in the realm of lobbying claims and political briefing until there is an on-the-record declaration.
Mbalula, for his part, has told ANC members to stop treating the next national conference as the organising principle of the party’s recovery.
Addressing a regional gathering in the Eastern Cape, he warned that “obsession” with the 2027 national conference could derail efforts to rebuild after the ANC’s poor showing in the 2024 elections.
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“The local government election results will define what happens in 2029,” Mbalula said, urging members to focus on strengthening branches and mobilisation ahead of the 2026 local government polls.
He added: “Why are comrades obsessed with who must lead at the next conference in 2027 when we are in a muddy place like this? If we do not focus on the task at hand, we will be out of power faster than expected.”
Malema’s December briefing ranged beyond ANC succession, including an effort to shut down rumours linking him to businessman Vusimuzi “Cat” Matlala.
“I am not related to Cat Matlala. My wife is not related to Cat Matlala,” he said.
And so the question returns, narrowed to what matters.
Malema has made a prediction, and he has pointed to what he says he saw in the room and what he believes Mbalula is building inside the party. But whether he was merely reading the political weather – or hinting at insider knowledge about who is lining up behind whom – is not something that can be proven from public statements alone.
In South African politics, though, that line between prediction and signal is exactly where the intrigue lives.
Did Malema know? And if so, what does he know about the ANC’s next move?
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