South Africa’s central bank will likely extend its tightening cycle and push rates cuts further into the future amid countrywide power outages and currency weakness, analysts said, adding to inflationary pressures straining businesses and households.
The South African Reserve Bank (Sarb) – which is facing a dilemma of how to keep a lid on inflation without further stifling already anaemic economic growth – has hiked its main lending rate by 425 basis points since November 2021.
But inflation continues to run hot.
The next rate decision is on Thursday, and a majority of economists surveyed by Reuters last week expect a 25 basis points (bps) hike to 8.00%.
But some analysts, like Nicolaie Alexandru-Chidesciuc at JPMorgan, have ramped up their forecasts, now expecting the bank to deliver a 50bp hike and predicting the first rate cut would not come until well into 2024.
“The risk of worsening electricity cuts as
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