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South Africa’s Political Risk Profile Has Gone Up A Few Notches: But It’s Not Yet a Failed State

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THEO NEETHLING

IN July, South Africa suffered the worst violence since the 1990s. Highways were blocked and businesses, warehouses and other property looted and set alight. More than 300 people died.

In mid-October, people were again shocked when a group of men, said to be Somali nationals, openly brandished high calibre weapons during a fight between Somali shop owners and local taxi drivers in public view in Gqeberha, Eastern Cape.

Not long after 56 people, said to be disgruntled military veterans, were arrested after allegedly holding two government ministers and a deputy minister hostage in Pretoria. They allegedly demanded compensation for their role in the liberation struggle against minority white rule.

These violent incidents led to a question being asked: has South Africa become a failed state? The issue has come up and warnings sounded before this year’s events.

I teach political risk analysis – in essence the study of

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