WITH POLLING of the 2020 race just about concluded, former Vice President Joe Biden is in an interesting position.
Biden’s national lead is large, and he has consistently led polls in states that would be sufficient to deliver him 270 electoral votes and therefore the presidency — most notably, the triad of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
But Biden’s lead in Pennsylvania — 1.2 to 4.7 percentage points, depending on the polling average — is not quite big enough for Democrats to be completely confident in it, particularly given what happened in 2016, when Donald Trump won the state and the polls underestimated Trump’s performance there by about 4 points.
Biden is also either narrowly ahead or about tied in polls of another set of swing states that he doesn’t even need to win: Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas. His leads are small (1 to 3 points
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