FOR many political observers, the outcome of Tanzania’s 28 October general election is already known. President John Magufuli will win a second term in office, bolstered by the benefits of incumbency and supported by the country’s best-resourced political party, Chama cha Mapinduzi (CCM).
This confidence derives from the fact that since winning the 2015 election with 58.46%, Magufuli has progressively consolidated his grip on power.
His administration has targeted opposition members with intimidation, concocted charges and jail sentences.
It has excluded critical voices within the ruling CCM.
And, apart from the security forces, it has repressed or co-opted every significant centre of power in the country. As such, the political arena has become so skewed that only one outcome this October seems feasible.
Many of Tanzania’s opposition politicians, however, argue otherwise. They insist that, against all the odds, there is still the possibility of a shock result.
Is this merely
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